CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-03-20T00:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-03-20T00:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16634/-1
CME Note: This arrival was attributed earlier to the signature seen at L1 around 2021-03-24T04:57Z. After a discussion with two ICME experts, it was decided that the second and stronger structure detected at L1 around 2021-03-24T19:18Z was the actual CME arrival. The first signature did not decrease in temperature while the second structure display clear signatures of a flux rope in the magnetic field, temperature and velocity.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-03-24T19:18Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-03-23T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Latest issue :Issued: 2021 Mar 21 1148 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A partial-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), with an angular width of about 150 degrees, was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery on Mar 20, 2021, from around 01:45 UTC. The CME is due to a filament eruption in the south east quadrant that occurred late on Mar 19. The projected speed was estimated around 300 km/s, with an estimated true speed of up to 500 km/s. Since the filament was located close to the central meridian of the solar disc, the CME may have a glancing blow at Earth on Mar 23 / early on Mar 24. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center Sent: Monday, March 22, 2021 8:09 AM To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert. expected arrival time: 2021-03-23T23:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 3 max_estimated_peak_K: 5 probability_of_arrival: 50Lead Time: 55.15 hour(s)
Difference: 20.30 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-03-22T12:09Z
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